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Structural damage assessment in northern Illinois due to potential earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone.


The Plane Source Model for seismic risk analysis is used to model a future earthquake originating at the New Madrid seismic Zone (NMSZ). The model is modified to be compatible with the fault characteristics of the NMSZ using a plane of rupture as the source of energy release during a probable future earthquake. The NMSZ is studied in terms of its location, geology, history of previous earthquakes, and comparison to faults in the eastern United States. A computer program has been developed which is capable of predicting the regional ground acceleration at various sites in the Midwestern States, due to an earthquake originating in the NMSZ. The program has been developed using the FORTRAN language, and the SURFER program for graphical representation. The Isoseismal contours are developed for various annual probability of exceedances (Return Periods). The assessment of damage to one story unreinforced masonary buildings in the Chicago and Cook County area has been investigated due to a potential earthquake in the NMSZ.